ilmscore | Recession Indicators Predictions
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Recession Indicators

Topic
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Accuracy

Recent Predictions

Total: 7
Correct: 1
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 6
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
Bond market suggests the US may be in a recession.
"The bond market is telling us we actually might be in a recession"
Andrei Jikh Andrei Jikh
Sep 20, 2025
Correct
We’re In A Recession...
The speaker notes that the White House states official recession determinations and economic assessments rely on a holistic view of data, including labor market, consumer/business spending, industrial production, and incomes, not just GDP.
"instead both official determinations of recessions and economists assessment of economic activity ar..."
Andrei Jikh Andrei Jikh
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
Prepare For The Rece...
The speaker points out that the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee does not consider inflation data when assessing recession odds, deeming this omission significant.
"the committee does not consider inflation data and that seems rather important and try to calculate ..."
Andrei Jikh Andrei Jikh
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
Prepare For The Rece...
The speaker highlights a statement from the White House press release suggesting the recession determination committee does not consider unemployment in its calculations, which the speaker finds contradictory.
"the committee does not even consider unemployment in its calculation"
Andrei Jikh Andrei Jikh
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
Prepare For The Rece...
The 'lipstick index' posits that women tend to increase spending on small luxuries like lipstick as a mood booster during difficult economic times.
"the lipstick index suggesting that women would spend more on small luxuries like lipstick as pick-me..."
Graham Stephan Graham Stephan
Apr 29, 2022
Pending
RECESSION ALERT: The...
The 'skyscraper index' theorizes that the completion of skyscrapers often marks the end of a significant building boom, potentially preceding an economic downturn.
"the skyscraper index in 1999 it was theorized that the completion of skyscrapers tends to cap off wh..."
Graham Stephan Graham Stephan
Apr 29, 2022
Pending
RECESSION ALERT: The...
Alan Greenspan's 'men's underwear index' suggests that a decline in sales of this staple item indicates tightened finances and a likely upcoming recession.
"the men's underwear index from none other than the former chair of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspa..."
Graham Stephan Graham Stephan
Apr 29, 2022
Pending
RECESSION ALERT: The...